Evaluating wind extremes in CMIP5 climate models

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dc.contributor.author Kumar, Devashish
dc.contributor.author Mishra, Vimal
dc.contributor.author Ganguly, Auroop Ratan
dc.date.accessioned 2015-06-26T06:39:01Z
dc.date.available 2015-06-26T06:39:01Z
dc.date.issued 2015-07
dc.identifier.citation Kumar, Devashish; Mishra, Vimal and Ganguly, Auroop Ratan, “Evaluating wind extremes in CMIP5 climate models”, Climate Dynamics, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2306-2, vol. 45, no. 1-2, pp. 441-453, Jul. 2015. en_US
dc.identifier.issn 0930-7575
dc.identifier.uri http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2306-2
dc.identifier.uri https://repository.iitgn.ac.in/handle/123456789/1776
dc.description.abstract Wind extremes have consequences for renewable energy sectors, critical infrastructures, coastal ecosystems, and insurance industry. Considerable debates remain regarding the impacts of climate change on wind extremes. While climate models have occasionally shown increases in regional wind extremes, a decline in the magnitude of mean and extreme near-surface wind speeds has been recently reported over most regions of the Northern Hemisphere using observed data. Previous studies of wind extremes under climate change have focused on selected regions and employed outputs from the regional climate models (RCMs). However, RCMs ultimately rely on the outputs of global circulation models (GCMs), and the value-addition from the former over the latter has been questioned. Regional model runs rarely employ the full suite of GCM ensembles, and hence may not be able to encapsulate the most likely projections or their variability. Here we evaluate the performance of the latest generation of GCMs, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), in simulating extreme winds. We find that the multimodel ensemble (MME) mean captures the spatial variability of annual maximum wind speeds over most regions except over the mountainous terrains. However, the historical temporal trends in annual maximum wind speeds for the reanalysis data, ERA-Interim, are not well represented in the GCMs. The historical trends in extreme winds from GCMs are statistically not significant over most regions. The MME model simulates the spatial patterns of extreme winds for 25–100 year return periods. The projected extreme winds from GCMs exhibit statistically less significant trends compared to the historical reference period. en_US
dc.description.statementofresponsibility by Devashish Kumar, Vimal Mishra and Auroop R. Ganguly
dc.format.extent Vol. 45, No. 1-2, pp. 441-453
dc.language.iso en_US en_US
dc.publisher Springer en_US
dc.subject CMIP5 models en_US
dc.subject Gumbel distribution en_US
dc.subject Model evaluation en_US
dc.subject Wind extremes en_US
dc.title Evaluating wind extremes in CMIP5 climate models en_US
dc.type Article en_US
dc.relation.journal Climate Dynamics

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