An observationally constrained analytical model for predicting the magnetic field vectors of interplanetary coronal mass ejections at 1 au

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dc.contributor.author Sarkar, Ranadeep
dc.contributor.author Gopalswamy, Nat
dc.contributor.author Srivastava, Nandita
dc.date.accessioned 2020-02-22T06:10:45Z
dc.date.available 2020-02-22T06:10:45Z
dc.date.issued 2020-01
dc.identifier.citation Sarkar, Ranadeep; Gopalswamy, Nat and Srivastava, Nandita, "An observationally constrained analytical model for predicting the magnetic field vectors of interplanetary coronal mass ejections at 1 au", The Astrophysical Journal, DOI: 10.3847/1538-4357/ab5fd7, vol. 888, no. 2, Jan. 2020. en_US
dc.identifier.issn 0004-637X
dc.identifier.issn 1538-4357
dc.identifier.uri http://dx.doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ab5fd7
dc.identifier.uri https://repository.iitgn.ac.in/handle/123456789/5116
dc.description.abstract We report on an observationally constrained analytical model, the INterplanetary Flux ROpe Simulator (INFROS), for predicting the magnetic field vectors of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the interplanetary medium. The main architecture of INFROS involves using the near-Sun flux rope properties obtained from the observational parameters that are evolved through the model in order to estimate the magnetic field vectors of interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) at any heliocentric distance. We have formulated a new approach in INFROS to incorporate the expanding nature and the time-varying axial magnetic field strength of the flux rope during its passage over the spacecraft. As a proof of concept, we present the case study of an Earth-impacting CME which occurred on 2013 April 11. Using the near-Sun properties of the CME flux rope, we have estimated the magnetic vectors of the ICME as intersected by the spacecraft at 1 au. The predicted magnetic field profiles of the ICME show good agreement with those observed by the in situ spacecraft. Importantly, the maximum strength (10.5 � 2.5 nT) of the southward component of the magnetic field (Bz) obtained from the model prediction is in agreement with the observed value (11 nT). Although our model does not include the prediction of the ICME plasma parameters, as a first-order approximation, it shows promising results in forecasting of Bz in near real time, which is critical for predicting the severity of the associated geomagnetic storms. This could prove to be a simple space-weather forecasting tool compared to the time-consuming and computationally expensive MHD models.
dc.description.statementofresponsibility by Ranadeep Sarkar
dc.description.statementofresponsibility Nat Gopalswamy
dc.description.statementofresponsibility Nandita Srivastava
dc.format.extent vol. 888, no. 2
dc.language.iso en_US en_US
dc.publisher The American Astronomical Society en_US
dc.title An observationally constrained analytical model for predicting the magnetic field vectors of interplanetary coronal mass ejections at 1 au en_US
dc.type Article en_US
dc.relation.journal The Astrophysical Journal


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