Climate change impacts assessment on precipitation within and around an urbanizing city under shared socioeconomic pathways

Abstract

In the current study, the impacts of climate change on precipitation to the Amaravati city of Andhra Pradesh, India, are assessed. Trends and variability of precipitation changes for the historical period 1951–2014 and various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP), SSP scenarios of the 2015–2100 period are determined by considering daily precipitation time series from bias-corrected climate projected data of precipitation from CMIP6 GCM, ACCESS CM2. Mann–Kendall (M–K) test and Sen’s slope estimator are used to perform trend and variability analysis of precipitation attributed to climate change. No magnitude of trend is found for precipitation both for observed and under SSP scenarios. However, there are increasing and decreasing trends observed season-wise and annual precipitation datasets for both observed and under SSP scenarios within and around the study area. Also, the urban land proportion projections indicate that the total area becomes urbanized even at the end of the year 2060. The findings of this study may assist in predicting the impacts of climate change on precipitation to a city.