Reservoir inflow forecast system for major Indian dams

Abstract

Floods are the most frequent natural disasters in India, causing widespread disruption to agriculture, infrastructure, and lives during the Indian summer monsoon. Dams play a critical role in mitigating downstream flooding by regulating reservoir storage and release. As the ability of dams to control floods strongly depend on antecedent reservoir storage, reservoir inflow forecasts are crucial for effective decision-making. Despite an extensive network of large dams, India currently lacks a reservoir inflow forecasting system incorporating all its major dams. Using the H08 land surface hydrological model with the CaMa-Flood hydrodynamic model, we developed a reservoir inflow forecast system for the major reservoirs in India. Using the meteorological forecasts from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), the framework provides short-range inflow forecasts to support decision-making. This forecast system offers potential to optimize reservoir storage levels, attenuate projected inflows, and mitigate downstream flooding.