Propagation of forcing and model uncertainties on to hydrological drought characteristics in a multi-model century-long experiment in large river basins

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dc.contributor.author Samaniego, Luis
dc.contributor.author Kumar, R.
dc.contributor.author Breuer, L.
dc.contributor.author Chamorro, Alejandro
dc.contributor.author Flörke, Martina
dc.contributor.author Pechlivanidis, Ilias G.
dc.contributor.author Schafer, David
dc.contributor.author Shah, Harsh L.
dc.contributor.author Vetter, Tobias
dc.contributor.author Wortmann, Michel
dc.contributor.author Zeng, Xiaofan
dc.date.accessioned 2016-09-06T07:41:14Z
dc.date.available 2016-09-06T07:41:14Z
dc.date.issued 2017-04
dc.identifier.citation Samaniego, L.; Kumar, R.; Breuer, L.; Chamorro, A.; Flörke, M.; Pechlivanidis, I. G.; Schäfer, D.; Shah, Harsh; Vetter, T.; Wortmann, M. and Zeng, X., “Propagation of forcing and model uncertainties on to hydrological drought characteristics in a multi-model century-long experiment in large river basins”, Climatic Change, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1778-y, vol.141, no.3, pp.435-449,Apr. 2017. en_US
dc.identifier.issn 0165-0009
dc.identifier.issn 1573-1480
dc.identifier.uri https://repository.iitgn.ac.in/handle/123456789/2451
dc.identifier.uri http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1778-y
dc.description.abstract Recent climate change impact studies studies have presented conflicting results regarding the largest source of uncertainty in essential hydrological variables, especially streamflow and derived characteristics that describe the evolution of drought events. Part of the problem arises from the lack of a consistent framework to address compatible initial conditions for the impact models and a set of standardized historical and future forcings. The ISI-MIP2 project provides a good opportunity to advance our understanding of the propagation of forcing and model uncertainties on to century-long time series of drought characteristics using an ensemble of hydrological model (HM) projections across a broad range of climate scenarios and regions. To achieve this goal, we used six regional preconditioned hydrological models set up in seven large river basins: Upper-Amazon, Blue-Nile, Ganges, Upper-Niger, Upper-Mississippi, Rhine, and Upper-Yellow. These models were forced with bias-corrected outputs from five CMIP5 general circulation models (GCMs) under two extreme representative concentration pathway scenarios (i.e., RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) for the period 1971-2099. The simulated streamflow was transformed into a monthly runoff index (RI) to analyze the attributions of the GCM and HM uncertainties on to drought magnitudes and durations over time. The results indicated that GCM uncertainty mostly dominated over HM uncertainty for the projections of runoff drought characteristics, irrespective of the selected RCP and region. In general, the overall uncertainty increased with time. The uncertainty in the drought characteristics increased as the radiative forcing of the RCP increased, but the propagation of the GCM uncertainty on to a drought characteristic depended largely upon the hydro-climatic regime. Although our study emphasizes the need for multi-model ensembles for the assessment of future drought projections, the agreement between the GCM forcings was still too weak to draw conclusive recommendations. en_US
dc.description.statementofresponsibility by L. Samaniego, R. Kumar, L. Breuer, A. Chamorro, M. Flörke, I. G. Pechlivanidis, D. Schäfer, H. Shah, T. Vetter, M. Wortmann, X. Zeng
dc.format.extent vol.141, no.3, pp.435-449
dc.language.iso en_US en_US
dc.publisher Springer International Publishing en_US
dc.title Propagation of forcing and model uncertainties on to hydrological drought characteristics in a multi-model century-long experiment in large river basins en_US
dc.type Article en_US
dc.relation.journal Climatic Change


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