An ensemble analysis of climate change impacts on streamflow seasonality across 11 large river basins

Show simple item record Eisner, S. Flörke, M. Chamorro, Alejandro Daggupati, P. Donnelly, C. Huang, J. Hundecha, Y. Koch, H. Kalugin, A. Krylenko, I. Mishra, Vimal Piniewski, M. Samaniego, Luis Seidou, O. Wallner, M. Krysanova, V. 2017-01-31T06:15:37Z 2017-01-31T06:15:37Z 2017-04
dc.identifier.citation Eisner, S.; Flörke, M.; Chamorro, A.; Daggupati, P.; Donnelly, C.; Huang, J.; Hundecha, Y.; Koch, H.; Kalugin, A.; Krylenko, I.; Mishra, Vimal; Piniewski, M.; Samaniego, L.; Seidou, O.; Wallner, M. and Krysanova, V., “An ensemble analysis of climate change impacts on streamflow seasonality across 11 large river basins”, Climatic Change, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1844-5, vol. 141, no. 3, pp. 401-417, Apr. 2017.
dc.identifier.issn 0165-0009
dc.identifier.issn 1573-1480
dc.description.abstract The paper investigates climate change impacts on streamflow seasonality for a set of eleven representative large river basins covering all continents and a wide range of climatic and physiographic settings. Based on an ensemble of nine regional hydrological models driven by climate projections derived from five global circulation models under four representative concentration pathways, we analyzed the median and range of projected changes in seasonal streamflow by the end of the twenty-first century and examined the uncertainty arising from the different members of the modelling chain. Climate change impacts on the timing of seasonal streamflow were found to be small except for two basins. In many basins, we found an acceleration of the existing seasonality pattern, i.e. high-flows are projected to increase and/or low-flows are projected to decrease. In some basins the hydrologic projections indicate opposite directions of change which cancel out in the ensemble median, i.e., no robust conclusions could be drawn. In the majority of the basins, differences in projected streamflow seasonality between the low emission pathway and the high emission pathway are small with the exception of four basins. For these basins our results allow conclusions on the potential benefits (or adverse effects) of avoided GHG emissions for the seasonal streamflow regime. en_US
dc.description.statementofresponsibility by S. Eisner, M. Flörke, A. Chamorro, P. Daggupati, C. Donnelly, J. Huang, Y. Hundecha, H. Koch, A. Kalugin, I. Krylenko, Vimal Mishra, M. Piniewski, L. Samaniego, O. Seidou, M. Wallner and V. Krysanova
dc.format.extent Vol. 141, no. 3, pp. 401-417
dc.language.iso en_US en_US
dc.publisher Springer Verlag en_US
dc.title An ensemble analysis of climate change impacts on streamflow seasonality across 11 large river basins en_US
dc.type Article en_US
dc.relation.journal Climatic Change

Files in this item

Files Size Format View

There are no files associated with this item.

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record

Search Digital Repository


My Account