Reconstruction of droughts in India using multiple land-surface models (1951-2015)

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dc.contributor.author Mishra, Vimal
dc.contributor.author Shah, Reepal
dc.contributor.author Azhar, Syed
dc.contributor.author Shah, Harsh
dc.contributor.author Modi, Parth
dc.contributor.author Kumar, Rohini
dc.date.accessioned 2018-05-07T12:51:13Z
dc.date.available 2018-05-07T12:51:13Z
dc.date.issued 2018-04
dc.identifier.citation Mishra, Vimal; Shah, Reepal; Azhar, Syed; Shah, Harsh; Modi, Parth and Kumar, Rohini, "Reconstruction of droughts in India using multiple land-surface models (1951-2015)", Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, DOI: 10.5194/hess-22-2269-2018, vol. 22, no. 4, pp. 2269-2284, Apr. 2018. en_US
dc.identifier.isbn 1607-7938
dc.identifier.issn 1027-5606
dc.identifier.uri http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2269-2018
dc.identifier.uri https://repository.iitgn.ac.in/handle/123456789/3644
dc.description.abstract India has witnessed some of the most severe historical droughts in the current decade, and severity, frequency, and areal extent of droughts have been increasing. As a large part of the population of India is dependent on agriculture, soil moisture drought affecting agricultural activities (crop yields) has significant impacts on socio-economic conditions. Due to limited observations, soil moisture is generally simulated using land-surface hydrological models (LSMs); however, these LSM outputs have uncertainty due to many factors, including errors in forcing data and model parameterization. Here we reconstruct agricultural drought events over India during the period of 1951-2015 based on simulated soil moisture from three LSMs, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC), the Noah, and the Community Land Model (CLM). Based on simulations from the three LSMs, we find that major drought events occurred in 1987, 2002, and 2015 during the monsoon season (June through September). During the Rabi season (November through February), major soil moisture droughts occurred in 1966, 1973, 2001, and 2003. Soil moisture droughts estimated from the three LSMs are comparable in terms of their spatial coverage; however, differences are found in drought severity. Moreover, we find a higher uncertainty in simulated drought characteristics over a large part of India during the major crop-growing season (Rabi season, November to February: NDJF) compared to those of the monsoon season (June to September: JJAS). Furthermore, uncertainty in drought estimates is higher for severe and localized droughts. Higher uncertainty in the soil moisture droughts is largely due to the difference in model parameterizations (especially soil depth), resulting in different persistence of soil moisture simulated by the three LSMs. Our study highlights the importance of accounting for the LSMs' uncertainty and consideration of the multi-model ensemble system for the real-time monitoring and prediction of drought over India
dc.description.statementofresponsibility by Vimal Mishra, Reepal Shah, Syed Azhar, Harsh Shah, Parth Modi and Rohini Kumar
dc.format.extent vol. 22, no. 4, pp. 2269-2284
dc.language.iso en en_US
dc.publisher European Geosciences Union en_US
dc.title Reconstruction of droughts in India using multiple land-surface models (1951-2015) en_US
dc.type Article en_US
dc.relation.journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences


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