Propagation of meteorological to hydrological droughts in India

Abstract

Drought is among the costliest natural disasters that affect the economy, food, and water security, and socio?economic well?being of about 1.4 billion people in India. Despite the profound implications of droughts, the propagation of meteorological to hydrological droughts in India is not examined. Here, we use observations and simulations from a well?calibrated and evaluated the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model to estimate drought propagation in India. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSMI), and Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) were estimated for 223 catchments in India to represent meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts, respectively. We estimated drought propagation time for these catchments located in 18 major Indian subcontinental river basins. Internal propagation of hydrological drought was estimated using optimal hydrological Instantaneous Development (IDS) and Instantaneous Recovery Speeds (IRS) from onset to the termination. Indus, Sabarmati, and Godavari river basins have higher propagation time of meteorological to hydrological drought. The High (low) development rate of hydrological drought is followed by the high (low) recovery rate for most of the locations. We find significant influence of seasonality index (SI) and base flow index (BFI) on propagation time of meteorological to hydrological droughts in the Indian sub?continental river basins. Overall, understanding of drought propagation, development/recovery speed, and their deriving factors can assist in the management and planning of water resources in India.