A quantitative framework for establishing low-risk interdistrict travel corridors during COVID-19

Abstract

Aspirations to slow down the spread of Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV2) resulted in unprecedented restrictions on personal and work-related travels in various nations across the globe. As a consequence, economic activities within and across the countries were almost halted. As restrictions loosen and cities start to resume public and private transport to revamp the economy, it becomes critical to assess the commuters travel-related risk in light of the ongoing pandemic. We develop a generalizable quantitative framework to evaluate the commute-related risk arising from inter-district and intra-district travels by combining Nonparametric Data Envelopment analysis for vulnerability assessment with transportation network analysis. We demonstrate the application of the proposed model for establishing travel corridors or travel bubbles within and across Gujarat and Maharashtra, two Indian states that have reported many SARS-CoV2 cases since early April 2020. Our findings suggest that establishing the travel bubble between a pair of districts solely based on the health vulnerability indices of origin-destination discards the en-route travel risks due to prevalent pandemic, hence underestimating the threat. For example, while the resultant of social and health vulnerabilities of Narmada and Vadodara's districts is relatively moderate, the en-route travel risk exacerbates the overall travel risk. Our study provides actionable insights to users into choosing the alternate path with the least risk and can inform political decisions to establish low-risk travel corridors within and across the states while accounting for social and health vulnerabilities in addition to transit-time related risks.