The Pakistan flood of August 2022: causes and implications

Abstract

The risk of floods has increased in South Asia due to high vulnerability and exposure. The August 2022 Pakistan flood shows a glimpse of the enormity and devastation that can further rise under the warming climate. The deluge caused by the Pakistan floods in 2022, which badly hit the country's southern provinces, is incomparable to any recent events in terms of the vast spatial and temporal scale. The 2022 Pakistan flood ranked third in human mortality, while this was the top event that displaced about 32 million people. Using observations and climate projections, we examine the causes and implications of the August 2022 flood in Pakistan. Multiday (~ 15 days) extreme precipitation on wet antecedent soil moisture conditions was the primary driver of the flood in August 2022. The extreme precipitation in August was caused by two atmospheric rivers that passed over southern Pakistan. Streamflow simulations from the multiple hydrological models show that extreme precipitation was the primary driver of floods as several stations in the flood-affected regions experienced anomalously higher flow than the stations located upstream. The frequency of similar multi-day extreme precipitation events is projected to rise four-fold under the high emission scenario. The 2022 Pakistan flood highlights the adaptation challenges that South Asia is facing along with the substantial need for climate mitigation to reduce the risk of such events in the future.