Atmospheric and land drivers of streamflow flash droughts in India

Abstract

Streamflow flash droughts (SFDs), characterized by a rapid decline in streamflow over a relatively short period, affect water availability, hydropower generation, and the ecosystem. However, atmospheric and land processes that drive SFDs in the monsoonal climate of India remain unexplored. Using observations, reanalysis data sets, and model simulations, we examined the critical drivers of SFDs in 64 catchments in India during the 1971–2018 period. We identified meteorological flash droughts (MFDs) using precipitation and SFDs using in situ observations and model simulations of streamflow. We show that precipitation deficit and anomalous high temperature, driven mainly by the summer monsoon breaks, lead to the development of MFDs. Antecedent baseflow conditions play a major role in the propagation of MFDs to SFDs. Favorable atmospheric conditions (driven by the monsoon breaks) cause MFDs, which translate to SFDs. High and low baseflow conditions limit the rapid decline in streamflow, which controls the occurrence of streamflow flash drought. On the other hand, favorable atmospheric conditions combined with moderate baseflow can trigger SFDs in India during the summer monsoon season. Moreover, humid catchments are more prone to propagation from MFDs to SFDs during the monsoon season in India. Understanding the crucial role of atmospheric and land drivers can assist in examining the occurrence of streamflow flash drought with implications for water resources planning and management.