Flood risk assessment for Indian sub-continental river basins

Abstract

Floods are among India's most frequently occurring natural disasters, which disrupt all aspects of socio-economic well-being. A large population is affected by floods, which leave their footprints through human mortality, migration, and damage to agriculture and infrastructure, during almost every summer monsoon season in India. Despite the massive imprints of floods, sub-basin level flood risk assessment is still in its infancy and requires advancements. Using hydrological and hydrodynamic models, we reconstructed sub-basin level observed floods for the 1901–2020 period. Our modeling framework includes the influence of 51 major reservoirs that affect flow variability and flood inundation. Sub-basins in the Ganga and Brahmaputra river basins witnessed substantial flood inundation extent during the worst flood in the observational record. Major floods in the sub-basins of the Ganga and Brahmaputra occur during the late summer monsoon season (August–September). While the Beas, Brahmani, upper Satluj, upper Godavari, middle and lower Krishna, and Vashishti are among the sub-basins influenced by the presence of dams on downstream flood dynamics, the Beas, Brahmani, Ravi, and lower Satluj sub-basins are the most impacted by floods and the presence of dams. Bhagirathi, Gandak, Kosi, lower Brahmaputra, and Ghaghara are India's sub-basins with the highest flood risk. Our findings have implications for flood risk assessment and mitigation in India.