Observation-Constrained Projections Reveal Robust Streamflow Increases in Indian Rivers

Reliable streamflow projections are essential for effective water-resource management and climate adaptation. However, streamflow projections are associated with large uncertainties due to divergent precipitation projections from climate models, which directly propagate into hydrological estimates. Observation-constrained approaches that condition future projections on past observations have been shown to reduce such uncertainties; however, they have not been applied to streamflow projections across the Indian rivers. Using long-term streamflow and global mean surface temperature observations, climate model projections, hydrological modeling, and a Bayesian detection–attribution framework, we developed observational constrained streamflow projections for nine major Indian rivers. The method reduces the 5–95% confidence interval of future streamflow projections by nearly one-third compared to raw multimodel ensembles, with constraint strength controlled by internal streamflow variability and inter-model spread in the unconstrained ensemble. Projection uncertainty is further reduced to ∼20% when considering projections based only on skillful climate models. Constrained projections indicate significant increases in streamflow in the near-, mid-, and far-future periods, except for the Cauvery basin, which shows a near-term decline. Applying the method to raw precipitation projections reveals comparable constraint strength and increases confidence in the results, given the strong dependence of Indian river flows on precipitation. Our findings underscore the importance of combining skillful climate models with post-processing constraint methods to substantially reduce model-based uncertainty. Overall, our results provide critical insights into future streamflow changes across Indian rivers, supporting long-term water-resource planning and climate-resilient management.