Greening of the Thar Desert driven by climate change and human interventions

Ongoing and projected climate changes are likely to negatively impact the livelihoods of over two billion people living in global drylands. Unlike many other drylands, the Thar Desert has experienced rapid urban (50%–800% during 1985–2020) and agricultural expansion (∼300%), yet the drivers of the greening remain unexamined. We investigated how climate and human interventions have sustained agriculture and urbanization in the Thar Desert over the past two decades. The region experienced a significant increase (38%) in mean annual greenness during 2001–2023, supported by precipitation increase (45% contribution) and groundwater pumping (55% contribution). Substantial population growth and infrastructure development led to expanded cropped and irrigated areas, aided by an increase in the summer monsoon rainfall and the expansion of tube wells and energy availability to sustain agriculture during the dry season. While climate projections indicate the region will continue to benefit from an intensifying monsoon, constraints related to dry-season water availability and rising heat could pose challenges in the future.